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On Monday, all products related to crude oil have risen all the way. The chemical fiber raw materials in the textile industry, as a downstream product of petroleum, are highly correlated with the price of crude oil. It is a matter of course. PTA ended the shock between 5000-5200 points in more than a month, and the opening jumped to 5328 points. Ethylene glycol lost a small increase in patience, and the market opened up in a straight line. All the quotes for polyester yarn can't wait to raise 100 yuan/ton in the morning.
Price increases are both opportunities and challenges
01, the price rises, production and sales are good
The mentality of buying up and not buying down began to play a role at this time. The price of raw materials in the early stage has been at a low level. The early purchase of the grey cloth factory is a variety of complaints, and it is claimed that the raw materials will not be bought in the near stage. However, as crude oil prices ignited the textile raw materials market, production and sales quickly recovered, reaching 260%. Walking on the market and carefully observing, the trucks that transport raw materials on the road early in the morning are obviously much more than usual.
It can be seen that some weaving factories have already started to purchase a large amount of raw materials, so as to avoid rising raw material prices. Moreover, some raw material manufacturers in the market have begun to close the sale, and the price of raw materials has not only increased, but also a picture of tight sales.
For many weaving mills, this raw material price increase is not entirely a bad thing. Most of the weaving mills in the market have stocks of grey fabrics ranging from 39 days to 40 days, and most of these fabrics were woven at a lower price of raw materials. Now that crude oil production capacity is limited, the price increase is already known all over the world. The terminal market is also happy to accept the fact that the grey cloth is rising. If the grey cloth is sold at the current raw material price, it will surely get a lot of “unexpected wealth”.
02, the rise is weak, accelerate the destocking
Although the Saudi crude oil production capacity of more than 5 million barrels was affected, it actually only accounted for 5% of the global daily crude oil production. In addition, Saudi officials also expressed their views on the weekend, hoping to restore the daily output of crude oil to the normal level of 9.8 million barrels on Monday, September 16. The production capacity will be normal within a few days, which shows that the damage caused by the drone attack is very limited.
More importantly, there are many crude oil importing countries in China, which can completely offset the impact of the reduction in crude oil production by increasing the imports of other countries. For example, the export of Iranian crude oil was limited in the previous period. China’s crude oil imports from Iran fell by 30% in the first half of the year. In order to eliminate the impact of the sharp decline in Iran’s crude oil imports, China has increased its crude oil imports to Saudi Arabia, which was larger in June this year than in the same period last year. Up 84%.
The situation of less than demand will only appear in the short term, so the rise in crude oil prices is only temporary. In other words, the price increase of textile raw materials is also limited. In particular, the overall textile terminal demand has not changed substantially, and the soaring raw material side will only lead to the situation of “priceless and no market”, and the market will return to rationality after the market.
In the early stage, not only the grey cloth was in stock, but also the raw material end. Taking PTA as an example, the current inventory is the highest in the year. Therefore, to seize the "black swan" incident and accelerate the destocking is what textiles and industries should do. If you pick up the goods at this time and falsely report the price, you will miss the important inventory opportunity of the previous year. It is to keep the stock for the New Year, or cash to see this time.
01, China's demand for natural gas is growing
The attack on the Saudi oil facility affected not only the daily production of more than 5 million barrels of crude oil, but also the production of natural gas by 50% and the supply of 2 billion cubic meters. Natural gas production is rapidly declining in the short term and will certainly have an impact on global natural gas prices.
China's demand for natural gas has been very large in recent years, especially in the past few years, the industry has implemented “coal to gas”, and the demand for natural gas has been expanding year by year. Consumption is expected to increase by 10% in 2019 and will reach 310 billion cubic meters. However, China’s domestic production is limited and requires a large amount of dependence on imports.
02, the textile industry is highly dependent on natural gas
The project of “coal to gas” also involves the textile industry. After several years of hard work, the current textile industry chain has basically lost sight of coal from weaving to printing and dyeing, and then finishing it. It is replaced by clean and clean natural gas. However, China's natural gas supply is insufficient, and occasionally there will be insufficient use of natural gas. Especially in the winter of 2017-2018, the “coal to gas” project was initially implemented on a large scale, and the result overlapped with the winter heating, resulting in a serious shortage of natural gas.
At that time, in order to give way to “residents' use of gas”, the textile industry experienced a large number of production and production restrictions. The production capacity of textile factories of various sizes was severely limited. Even the use of coal restrictions in some factories was released, which once affected the process of “coal to gas”. And now the time is right in the early stage of heating, the demand for natural gas is coming. The output of natural gas in Saudi Arabia has dropped sharply. The price of natural gas in the international market is bound to rise, which will also lead to an increase in the import price of natural gas in China, which will eventually affect the production cost of the textile industry.
On the whole, the impact of the rise in crude oil prices on our textile industry is limited. There is no terminal clothing order boost, and the textile industry chain lacks the incentive to increase prices. The rise in raw material prices will only boost the short-term upward adjustment of downstream products, and will eventually conform to the market's return to rationality. However, the decline in the production capacity of natural gas cannot be ignored. After all, the history of the textile industry being devastated by natural gas supply is not long.
Dongyang Laichi Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd. is based on the concept of “Seiko Quality, Fine Service”. The main production and operation: spunbond non-woven fabric, elastic non-woven fabric, medical non-woven fabric, SSS non-woven fabric, SMS non-woven fabric, etc. , is a professional non-woven fabric manufacturer.