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Since September, the polyester market has been shrouded in the shadow of the expectation of overcapacity. The recent negatives have been exhausted, the implementation of maintenance equipment, and prices have shown signs of stopping.
Recently, the domestic commodity futures market PTA, ethylene glycol and other multi-contracts have promoted performance. With the achievement of the diyi stage in the trade negotiations, there are new driving factors for the upward movement of the polyester market in the later period.
However, from the recent analysis of the operation of the domestic textile market, although an agreement has been reached, the domestic textile market has not fluctuated as much as the previous few times, and the orderly rise and fall of commodity prices have not had much impact on the market. The entire polyester market remains In a state of weakness throughout the year.
The reason is that the editor believes that in the short term, it may make the polyester raw materials stop falling and stabilize, and the favorable trade has boosted the confidence of the weaving market production. It is relatively positive and optimistic about the shift from prudent raw material preparation operations to raw material stocking. Partial increase in inventory can also enable polyester factories to speed up destocking at the arrival of the year, but when the market enters the end of the year, the terminal will enter a situation where the start-up rate has plummeted, and weaving funds are relatively tight this year, and the situation of preparing raw materials It's not too optimistic.
At the same time, in the case of orders, the relative time to this node is relatively late. At present, tariffs have not increased and there is no export robbing situation at the end of last year. Therefore, the real order recovery situation, Xiaobian thinks it should also be reflected early next year.
In the long run, these two factors determine the new direction of the market.
1. Trade friction has a profound impact on the textile industry, but it is not the cause of weiyi
The tax increase list covers most of China's chemical fibers, yarns, fabrics, carpets, industrial textiles, clothing and home textiles. According to customs data, China's total export of textile and apparel products to the United States each year is about $ 50 billion.
Trade barriers have directly caused a significant decline in China's exports of textiles and apparel to the United States. Among them, the decline in chemical fiber long and short yarns is rapid, and has a strong replaceability. The export of yarn to the United States is relatively optimistic. With the increase of tariffs, the export of textiles will face greater difficulties, and the export pressure of apparel and home textile products will become more prominent in 2020.
From the data of China's major export markets, according to customs statistics, from January to June 2019, China's cumulative exports of clothing and clothing accessories fell in volume and price, with an export value of 66.574 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%, and the number of clothing exports was 14.132 100 million pieces, a year-on-year decrease of 1.0%, and the average unit price of apparel exports was 3.64 US dollars / piece, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%. Trade friction is one of the reasons for the slowdown of China's export growth, but it is not the cause of weiyi. It also includes factors such as the slowdown of global economic growth and the adjustment of the layout of the international textile supply chain. .
In addition, with the changes in the external situation and the expansion of the industry itself, the development of China's textile industry has already entered a period of slowing overall growth and deep adjustment. The current development rate is within reasonable expectations. This is the development and structure of the textile industry. Adjustment is inevitable, so it cannot be said that tariff increase is the core factor for the slowdown of the industry growth. On the contrary, tariff increase has accelerated the transformation and upgrading of the industry. In the future, the key areas of direct participation in international market competition will gradually shift from clothing to fabrics, fibers and other mid- and upstream products in the industrial chain.
Today, good news comes from the trading environment, or the tension in the textile situation has eased, and periodic orders or market information have been restored. However, there are still many uncertain factors, and we must be alert to the changing and changing trade situation.
2. Textile chemical fiber market under the boom cycle: undergoing in-depth adjustment of overcapacity
Since this year, the entire industrial chain, including PX, PTA, polyester, and weaving, is experiencing overcapacity, and the market will adjust deeply in this haze.
Beginning in 2017, while the number of water jet loom of traditional textile clusters in the Yangtze River Delta has plummeted, the water jet loom of emerging textile clusters in Anhui, Subei, Hubei, Jiangxi and other regions has experienced a blowout situation. Enterprises that originally had 100 or 200 looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions became 300 or 500 after they moved out. The overall number of water jet looms has not decreased, but has increased.
The emerging water jet loom is not homogenous and the products produced are more homogeneous, which has caused a surplus of conventional products on the market. In fact, after investigation, it was found that in addition to the water jet loom, the production capacity of warp knitting machines and air jet looms also had a surplus of varying degrees in the past two years. According to statistics, this year, when the market is not optimistic, there will be 120,000 looms launched everywhere. At the same time, the shrinking of the consumer end of clothing has directly led to extremely high product inventory.
Similarly, the haze of overcapacity also appeared in polyester raw materials. Next, the domestic PX capacity expanded wildly, and the domestic PX supply further increased. It is also the peak period for the domestic PTA industry to start production, and the overall oversupply is expected to increase.
Of course, when trade is good for capacity expansion, whether the market can change the previous decline still requires everyone's efforts. I hope that the owners of textile and chemical fiber can spend it with a smile in the future!
Source: Textile Net
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